Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.297163 0.342496 0.391823 0.449405 0.514697 0.586346 0.670845
2025-07-13 0.239583 0.300624 0.372249 0.462195 0.571799 0.700673 0.863319
2025-07-20 0.190485 0.258943 0.345147 0.460962 0.611689 0.800313 1.053231
2025-07-27 0.156847 0.230186 0.328938 0.470302 0.665876 0.925051 1.292271
2025-08-03 0.130946 0.206907 0.315970 0.481773 0.724698 1.064214 1.570329
2025-08-10 0.102754 0.174881 0.285297 0.463441 0.739518 1.145796 1.781745
2025-08-17 0.079449 0.145563 0.253371 0.437702 0.739290 1.205579 1.970125
2025-08-24 0.064453 0.126686 0.234422 0.428938 0.763638 1.305212 2.231689
2025-08-31 0.052499 0.110538 0.217024 0.419634 0.785447 1.403422 2.503645
2025-09-07 0.045249 0.101585 0.210662 0.428445 0.839267 1.560843 2.892415
2025-09-14 0.036413 0.087428 0.191890 0.411087 0.843544 1.633789 3.145872
2025-09-21 0.030287 0.077533 0.179550 0.403856 0.865303 1.740012 3.470484
2025-09-28 0.024640 0.067540 0.165525 0.391805 0.878060 1.835444 3.795640
2025-10-05 0.021636 0.063092 0.162690 0.402992 0.939716 2.032362 4.337765
2025-10-12 0.018335 0.057009 0.154884 0.401839 0.975468 2.183235 4.809546
2025-10-19 0.016055 0.053049 0.151364 0.410018 1.033058 2.386218 5.411227
2025-10-26 0.014188 0.049738 0.148796 0.420088 1.096643 2.609982 6.082711
2025-11-02 0.011571 0.043348 0.136683 0.403903 1.096173 2.695291 6.470613
2025-11-09 0.009221 0.037002 0.123146 0.381212 1.076086 2.734109 6.761650
2025-11-16 0.007736 0.033079 0.115663 0.373479 1.092329 2.858257 7.258658
2025-11-23 0.006488 0.029557 0.108528 0.365278 1.106015 2.978029 7.759440
2025-11-30 0.005788 0.027889 0.106892 0.373023 1.163927 3.212298 8.556609
2025-12-07 0.004741 0.024402 0.098316 0.357740 1.155468 3.280295 8.960232